FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Effects of management on native and exotic plant communities in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Ecological disturbances may be caused by a range of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these are disturbances that result from human activities such as the introduction of exotic plants and land management activities. This dissertation addresses both of these types of disturbance in ecosystems in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Invasive plants are a significant cause of disturbance at Pictured Rocks Natural Lakeshore. Management of invasive plants is dependent on understanding what areas are at risk of being invaded, what the consequences of an invasion are on native plant communities and how effective different tools are for managing the invasive species. A series of risk models are described that predict three stages of invasion (introduction, establishment and spread) for eight invasive plant species at Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. These models are specific to this location and include species for which models have not previously been produced. The models were tested by collecting point data throughout the park to demonstrate their effectiveness for future detection of invasive plants in the park. Work to describe the impacts and management of invasive plants focused on spotted knapweed in the sensitive Grand Sable Dunes area of Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. Impacts of spotted knapweed were assessed by comparing vegetation communities in areas with varying amounts of spotted knapweed. This work showed significant increases in species diversity in areas invaded by knapweed, apparently as a result of the presence of a number of non-dune species that have become established in spotted knapweed invaded areas. An experiment was carried out to compare annual spot application of two herbicides, Milestone® and Transline® to target spotted knapweed. This included an assessment of impacts of this type of treatment on non-target species. There was no difference in the effectiveness of the two herbicides, and both significantly reduced the density of spotted knapweed during the course of the study. Areas treated with herbicide developed a higher percent cover of grasses during the study, and suffered limited negative impacts on some sensitive dune species such as beach pea and dune stitchwort, and on some other non-dune species such as hawkweed. The use of these herbicides to reduce the density of spotted knapweed appears to be feasible over large scales.

Federal and state policy influence on woody biomass utilization

A considerable portion of public lands in the United States is at risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfires due to a history of fire suppression. Wildfires already have detrimental impacts on the landscape and on communities in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) due to unnatural and overstocked forests. Strategies to mitigate wildfire risk include mechanical thinning and prescribed burning in areas with high wildfire risk. The material removed is often of little or no economic value. Woody biomass utilization (WBU) could offset the costs of hazardous fuel treatments if removed material could be used for wood products, heat, or electricity production. However, barriers due to transportation costs, removal costs, and physical constraints (such as steep slopes) hinder woody biomass utilization. Various federal and state policies attempt to overcome these barriers. WBU has the potential to aid in wildfire mitigation and meet growing state mandates for renewable energy. This research utilizes interview data from individuals involved with on-the-ground woody biomass removal and utilization to determine how federal and state policies influence woody biomass utilization. Results suggest that there is not one over-arching policy that hinders or promotes woody biomass utilization, but rather woody biomass utilization is hindered by organizational constraints related to time, cost, and quality of land management agencies’ actions. However, the use of stewardship contracting (a hybrid timber sale and service contract) shows promise for increased WBU, especially in states with favorable tax policies and renewable energy mandates. Policy recommendations to promote WBU include renewal of stewardship contracting legislations and a re-evaluation of land cover types suited for WBU. Potential future policies to consider include the indirect role of carbon dioxide emission reduction activities to promote wood energy and future impacts of air quality regulations.

Balancing wildlife and bioenergy values on private forestlands in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan

There is interest in developing a reliable, sustainable, domestic U.S. biofuels industry. A domestic biofuels industry has the potential to provide economic, environmental, and national security benefits on a local, regional, national, and global level. The Mascoma Corporation plans to develop a cellulosic ethanol facility in Michigan’s eastern Upper Peninsula. The primary feedstock of the plant site would be trees sourced within a 150 mile supply radius. In the eastern Upper Peninsula, this radius encompasses Alger, Chippewa, Delta, Luce, Mackinac, and Schoolcraft counties. In these six counties there are 1,320,500 acres of NIPF (non-industrial private forestlands). These acres account for 40% of the total timberland in these six counties. Thus it is likely that in order for the successful implementation of a cellulosic ethanol facility the support of local NIPF owners will be necessary. This thesis presents research on how eastern Upper Peninsula forest landowners think about and manage their land. It is based on 48 in-depth interviews with these landowners. The goal was to determine how landowner values and beliefs, on a variety of issues including wildlife management, land management, biofuels development, and climate change, are expressed through both their current management decisions, and possibly their future land management decisions. Some of the values articulated by the landowners in this study included biodiversity protection, conservation of healthy game populations, and the production of high-value timber. Understanding the values and beliefs of landowners in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan is critical for successfully developing a sustainable regional woody bioenergy.

Biochemical Conversions of Lignocellulosic Biomass for Sustainable Fuel-Ethanol Production in the Upper Midwest

Biofuels are an increasingly important component of worldwide energy supply. This research aims to understand the pathways and impacts of biofuels production, and to improve these processes to make them more efficient. In Chapter 2, a life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented for cellulosic ethanol production from five potential feedstocks of regional importance to the upper Midwest - hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, switchgrass, diverse prairie grasses, and logging residues - according to the requirements of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Direct land use change emissions are included for the conversion of abandoned agricultural land to feedstock production, and computer models of the conversion process are used in order to determine the effect of varying biomass composition on overall life cycle impacts. All scenarios analyzed here result in greater than 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum gasoline. Land use change effects were found to contribute significantly to the overall emissions for the first 20 years after plantation establishment. Chapter 3 is an investigation of the effects of biomass mixtures on overall sugar recovery from the combined processes of dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Biomass mixtures studied were aspen, a hardwood species well suited to biochemical processing; balsam, a high-lignin softwood species, and switchgrass, an herbaceous energy crop with high ash content. A matrix of three different dilute acid pretreatment severities and three different enzyme loading levels was used to characterize interactions between pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Maximum glucose yield for any species was 70% oftheoretical for switchgrass, and maximum xylose yield was 99.7% of theoretical for aspen. Supplemental β-glucosidase increased glucose yield from enzymatic hydrolysis by an average of 15%, and total sugar recoveries for mixtures could be predicted to within 4% by linear interpolation of the pure species results. Chapter 4 is an evaluation of the potential for producing Trichoderma reesei cellulose hydrolases in the Kluyveromyces lactis yeast expression system. The exoglucanases Cel6A and Cel7A, and the endoglucanase Cel7B were inserted separately into the K. lactis and the enzymes were analyzed for activity on various substrates. Recombinant Cel7B was found to be active on carboxymethyl cellulose and Avicel powdered cellulose substrates. Recombinant Cel6A was also found to be active on Avicel. Recombinant Cel7A was produced, but no enzymatic activity was detected on any substrate. Chapter 5 presents a new method for enzyme improvement studies using enzyme co-expression and yeast growth rate measurements as a potential high-throughput expression and screening system in K. lactis yeast. Two different K. lactis strains were evaluated for their usefulness in growth screening studies, one wild-type strain and one strain which has had the main galactose metabolic pathway disabled. Sequential transformation and co-expression of the exoglucanase Cel6A and endoglucanase Cel7B was performed, and improved hydrolysis rates on Avicel were detectable in the cell culture supernatant. Future work should focus on hydrolysis of natural substrates, developing the growth screening method, and utilizing the K. lactis expression system for directed evolution of enzymes.

Technology, Transportation, and Scale in the Koyokuk Placer Mining District 1890s - 1930s

The Koyukuk Mining District was one of several northern, turn of the century, gold rush regions. Miners focused their efforts in this region on the Middle Fork of the Koyukuk River and on several of its tributaries. Mining in the Koyukuk began in the 1880s and the first rush occurred in 1898. Continued mining throughout the early decades of the 1900s has resulted in an historic mining landscape consisting of structures, equipment, mining shafts, waste rock, trash scatters, and prospect pits. Modern work continues in the region alongside these historic resources. An archaeological survey was completed in 2012 as part of an Abandoned Mine Lands survey undergone with the Bureau of Land Management, Michigan Technological University, and the University of Alaska Anchorage. This thesis examines the discrepancy between the size of mining operations and their respective successes in the region while also providing an historical background on the region and reports on the historical resources present.

FOSSIL PLANTS AND PALYNOMORPHS FROM THE LATE PALEOZOIC CUTLER FORMATION, EASTERN PARADOX BASIN

The late Paleozoic Cutler Formation, where exposed near the modern-day town of Gateway, Colorado, has traditionally been interpreted as the product of alluvial fan deposition within the easternmost portion of the Paradox Basin. The Paradox Basin formed between the western margin of the Uncompahgre Uplift segment of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains and the western paleoshoreline of the North American portion of Pangea. The Paradox Basin region is commonly thought to have experienced semi-arid to arid conditions and warm temperatures during the Pennsylvanian and Permian. Evidence described in this paper support prior interpretations regarding paleoclimate conditions and the inferred depositional environment for the Cutler Formation near Gateway, Colorado. Plant fossils collected from the late Paleozoic Cutler Formation in The Palisade Wilderness Study Area (managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management) of western Colorado include Calamites, Walchia, Pecopteris, and many calamitean fragments. The flora collected is interpreted to have lived in an arid or semi-arid environment that included wet areas of limited areal extent located near the apex of an alluvial fan system. Palynological analysis of samples collected revealed the presence of the common Pennsylvanian palynomorphs Thymospora pseudothiessenii and Lophotriletes microsaetosus. These fossils suggest that warm and at least seasonally and locally wet conditions existed in the area during the time that the plants were growing. All evidence of late Paleozoic plant life collected during this study was found along the western margin of the Uncompahgre Uplift segment of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains. During the late Paleozoic, sediment was eroded from the Uncompahgre Uplift and deposited in the adjacent Paradox Basin. The preservation of plant fossils in the most proximal parts of the Paradox Basin is remarkable due to the fact that much of the proximal Cutler Formation consists of conglomerates and sandstones deposited as debris flow and by fluvial systems. The plants must have grown in a protected setting, possibly an abandoned channel on the alluvial fan, and been rapidly buried in the subsiding Paradox Basin. It is likely that there was abundant vegetation in and adjacent to low-lying wet areas at the time the Cutler Formation was deposited.